- By Demola Atobaba
Zambia’s exit from the 2026 CAF Women’s Africa Cup of Nations came as a surprise to many after the Copper Queens finished level on six points with both Nigeria and Malawi in Group C, TopNews reports.
While Nigeria secured an emphatic 6-2 victory over Egypt and Zambia defeated Malawi 2-1 in the final round of group matches on Wednesday, the results left three teams tied on six points, forcing the competition’s tiebreak regulations to determine the two quarter-final qualifiers.
Despite their victory over Malawi, Zambia were edged out as the Super Falcons and the Flames advanced to the knockout stage.
How the Three-Way Tiebreak Was Decided
With Nigeria, Malawi and Zambia all finishing on six points, CAF’s tiebreak rules required only the matches involving the three tied teams to be considered.
Results against bottom-placed Egypt were excluded from the calculation.
In the mini-league involving the three sides, each team collected three points after recording one win and one defeat.
Goal difference in those head-to-head matches also failed to separate them, leaving the standings to be decided by the next criterion—goals scored in the matches between the tied teams.
The final figures were:
– Malawi – 3 points, 4 goals scored
– Nigeria – 3 points, 3 goals scored
– Zambia – 3 points, 2 goals scored
With Malawi scoring the most goals in the mini-league, they finished top of the group. Nigeria ranked second, while Zambia’s lower goals tally left the Copper Queens in third place and out of the tournament.
Why Zambia’s Victory Was Not Enough
Although Zambia earned three crucial points by defeating Malawi in their final group match, that result alone was insufficient under CAF’s tiebreak regulations.
Because all three teams were level on points and could not be separated by head-to-head goal difference, the number of goals scored in matches among the tied teams became the deciding factor.
Zambia’s total of two goals across those head-to-head fixtures was lower than Malawi’s four and Nigeria’s three, ultimately costing them a place in the quarter-finals.
The outcome underlines the importance of every goal in tightly contested groups, where qualification can hinge on the smallest statistical margins rather than overall results.
Nigeria and Malawi Progress
Malawi advanced as Group C winners, with Nigeria qualifying as runners-up after recovering from an opening defeat to the Flames with successive victories over Zambia and Egypt.
The Super Falcons’ convincing win over Egypt restored confidence after a difficult start to their title defence, while Malawi continued their impressive campaign by topping one of the tournament’s most competitive groups.
Both teams will now await the conclusion of Group D to discover their quarter-final opponents.
For Zambia, however, victory in their final group fixture proved insufficient. Despite finishing level on points with the top two teams, the Copper Queens were eliminated after falling short on the head-to-head goals scored tiebreak.
